The Scratch

Pick 3 Players Seeing Double

People often say lightning never strikes the same place twice. In actuality, lightning can strike the same point multiple times and in quick succession, just like the Nebraska Pick 3 numbers from December 6 and December 7. The winning numbers for both days were 2, 7, and 8. Sometimes chance is a funny thing.

Some people may wonder what the chances of that are. First, let’s clarify the difference between the odds of winning a Straight Bet in Pick 3, and the chances that the same numbers would come in two days in a row—something you can’t bet on with the Nebraska Lottery.

In Pick 3, the odds of winning the top prize (the Straight Bet) are 1 in 1,000 because there are 1,000 ways you can combine the numbers 0-9 to make a three-digit straight play. Think of the daily Pick 3 drawing as three mini drawings, one for each of the winning numbers chosen. The numbers 0-9 are available each time, so there are 10 possibilities for each position. That means the odds break down like this for the Pick 3 top prize: 10 x 10 x 10 = 1,000.

The odds of 2, 7, 8 being chosen Tuesday were 1 in 1,000. The odds of 2, 7, 8 being chosen Wednesday were also 1 in 1,000. The odds of the winning numbers being 6, 6, 6 on Friday the 13th are also 1 in 1,000.

Each drawing is separate and in no way connected to the previous one.

Next, let’s step into the realm of hypotheticals. What are the odds of the same numbers, 2, 7 ,8, being drawn two days in a row? Or, while we’re on hypotheticals, what are the odds of any two sets of numbers being drawn one after another? Say it were 1, 2, 3 and 4, 5, 6 instead?

Those odds would be calculated the same way. Let’s refer back to the math above where we talked about how each Pick 3 drawing is actually broken down to three mini drawings.  Think of this calculation as a new game where we draw three numbers one day, then wait to draw the other three numbers the next day. You’d still be betting on a specific set of six numbers to come in. Those odds break down like this: 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 1 million.

But, like I said, that is all hypothetical in terms of the way the Nebraska Lottery operates Pick 3. All drawings are separate events that are unrelated.

Let’s peek behind the curtain and take a look at how the numbers are chosen. You won’t see a wizard pulling strings and pushing buttons. You’ll find two drawing machines that are not connected to a network, don’t store a record of previous drawings nor a record of wagers made. The machine used for each drawing is also chosen at random. To take it a step further, the two Pick 3 drawings in question this week were performed on different machines.

This kind of thing has happened before, and will likely happen again. It’s in the odds.

In the research process of putting this post together there was an interesting exchange of ideas and the word “kerfuffle” was brought into the fold. I am now looking for any excuse to use that word going into the future.